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Fikcyjny eksport zawyżał wzrost PKB w latach 2014-2015

Jak ujawnił w poprzednim tygodniu w wywiadzie dla PAP wicepremier i minister finansów Mateusz Morawiecki w ostatnich latach rządów koalicji PO-PSL ze względu na masowe wystawianie fikcyjnych faktur dotyczących sprzedaży na eksport, zawyżany był także wzrost PKB szczególnie w latach 2014-2015.

Według Morawieckiego wartość fikcyjnych faktur dotyczących eksportu w tych latach sięgała od 20 mld zł do 30 mld zł rocznie, według dokonanych ostatnio szacunków resortu finansów.

Ponieważ eksport w tym także ten wewnątrzwspólnotowy (do krajów UE) jest opodatkowany zerową stawką podatku VAT, to wystawianie fikcyjnych faktur pozwala sprzedającemu na uzyskanie zwrotu VAT zawartego z kolei w zakupach przez niego towarów lub usług.

Oczywiście nie wystarczy do tego jedna prosta transakcja, dlatego tworzy się tzw. karuzele VAT-owskie, czyli przemieszcza dany towar pomiędzy wieloma firmami, aby utrudnić później dochodzenia prowadzone przez kontrolerów skarbowych. Zresztą po kilku tygodniach intensywnego uczestnictwa w takiej karuzeli i po uzyskaniu zwrotu VAT, takie firmy najczęściej zaprzestają działalności, po prostu znikają z rynku.

Ten typ przestępstw masowo występował w Polsce szczególnie w ostatnich latach funkcjonowania koalicji PO-PSL i oznaczało to w pierwszej kolejności poważne uszczuplenia wpływów podatkowych z podatku VAT (jak wynika z analizy tych faktur Polska była czołowym na świecie eksporterem telefonów komórkowych, choć w zasadzie nie jesteśmy ich producentem).

W kilku kolejnych latach rządów tej koalicji było wręcz tak, że wpływy z podatku VAT zamiast rosnąć z roku na rok, choćby w związku z ponad 3% wzrostem PKB każdego roku, nie tylko nie rosły, ale kolejnych latach były mniejsze niż w latach poprzednich.

Istnieją coraz poważniejsze podejrzenia, że działo się to za cichym politycznym przyzwoleniem na tego typu wyłudzenia, bo kolejni ministrowie finansów rządu PO-PSL, nie podejmowali żądnych zdecydowanych działań, żeby tego rodzaju praktykom przeciwdziałać.

Wicepremier Morawiecki podkreślił przy tej okazji, że w związku z tym fikcyjnym eksportem, corocznie zawyżany był wzrost PKB, szczególnie w latach 2014-2015 kiedy to jego wielkość sięgała od 20-30 mld zł rocznie.

Na wzrost PKB składają się w uproszczeniu czynniki: konsumpcja (indywidualna i zbiorowa), inwestycje i tzw. eksport netto, i to właśnie ich wzrost lub spadek sumarycznie określa poziom wzrostu PKB w danym roku.

Jeżeli zatem w roku 2014 polski eksport wyniósł około 693 mld zł, czyli około 150 mld euro (przy przyjęciu średniego kursu 4 zł za jedno euro), a import około 704 mld zł, czyli około 152 mld euro, mieliśmy, więc minimalny deficyt i w związku z tym samym mniej więcej neutralne oddziaływanie wskaźnika eksportu netto na wzrost PKB.

Fikcyjny eksport na poziomie 30 mld zł, czyli około 7,5 mld euro powoduje, że w rzeczywistości deficyt w handlu był w 2014 bliski 10 mld euro i w związku z tym miał niewątpliwie ujemny wpływ na wzrost PKB, który musiał być niższy niż 3,3%, tak jak to podał oficjalnie GUS.

Jeszcze bardziej skomplikowana była sytuacja w roku 2015, kiedy to eksport wyniósł blisko 179 mld euro, import 175 mld euro i po raz pierwszy od wielu, Polska miała dodatni bilans handlowy wynoszący ok. 4 mld euro, co przełożyło się na mocny wpływ wskaźnika eksportu netto na wzrost PKB (według GUS wyniósł 3,9 %).

Jeżeli jednak w rzeczywistości eksport był o 30 mld zł niższy (o ok.7,5 mld euro) to zamiast nadwyżki w handlu zagranicznym mieliśmy jednak w handlu zagranicznym deficyt i to oznacza, że nie dodatnio, ale ujemnie wpływał on na wzrost PKB.

Fikcyjny eksport nie tylko, więc oznaczał poważne uszczuplenia wpływów z podatku VAT w latach 2014-2015 ale także jak się okazuje „fałszował” statystyki wzrostu PKB (zawyżając ten wzrost).

Miejmy, więc nadzieję, że po ujawnieniu tych danych przez wicepremiera Morawieckiego, zbadaniem zjawiska wpływu fikcyjnego eksportu na poziom wzrostu PKB, zajmie się teraz GUS i po przeprowadzonych badaniach, dokonana korekty wzrostu PKB za lata 2014-2015.

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