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Prezes NBP Adam Glapiński o przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku

1. Prezes Narodowego Banku Polskiego Adam Glapiński udzielił Polskiej Agencji Prasowej wywiadu dotyczącego stanu polskiej gospodarki i finansów publicznych, a także ich perspektyw w roku 2017.

Prezes NBP już na początku wywiadu, stwierdza, że rok 2017 zapowiada się dobrze i wymienia czynniki, które o tym decydują: najniższe w historii bezrobocie, przyzwoity na tle innych krajów UE wzrost gospodarczy, śladową inflację, brak dużych nierównowag na poszczególnych rynkach i stabilny sektor bankowy.

Dodaje także, że w roku 2016 deficyt budżetowy był rekordowy niski (prawdopodobnie zaledwie 54% planowanego), co oznacza również, że deficyt całego sektora finansów publicznych będzie niewiele wyższy niż 2% PKB, a w konsekwencji nastąpi niewielki wzrost długu publicznego w wielkościach bezwzględnych, a w wielkościach relatywnych (w relacji do PKB), będzie on nawet niższy niż w roku poprzednim.

Prezes NBP mówi także o kształtowaniu stóp procentowych przez Radę Polityki Pieniężnej, że są one na historycznie najniższym poziomie (podstawowa wynosi 1,5%), co oznacza, ze przy inflacji, która w końcu tego roku może sięgnąć 1,5%, realna podstawowa stopa procentowa banku centralnego będzie wynosiła 0%, co daje możliwość zaciągania kredytów po możliwie najniższych kosztach.

2. Wszystkie te czynniki powinny sprzyjać przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku, ale kluczowy będzie spodziewany wzrost inwestycji zarówno tych publicznych jak i prywatnych.

Rzeczywiście w 2016 roku doszło do załamania inwestycji publicznych w stosunku do roku 2015 spadły one aż, o 40%, ale rok 2017 powinien być pod tym względem przełomem, ponieważ jest 4 rok realizacji unijnej perspektywy finansowej na lata 2014-2020.

Samorządy, bo to one odpowiadają głównie za wydatkowanie tych środków, muszą rzeczywiście przyśpieszyć inwestycje współfinansowane z unijnego budżetu, bowiem jeżeli tego nie zrobią do roku 2020 nie uda się wszystkich środków wykorzystać.

Weszła już w życie znowelizowana ustawa o zamówieniach publicznych (tych zmian życzyła sobie Komisja Europejska), a minister rozwoju zdecydowanie uprościł krajowe przepisy związane z realizacją inwestycji wykorzystujących środki unijne, więc przyśpieszenie realizacji tych inwestycji już w 2017 roku jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

3. Są, więc warunki do osiągnięcia w 2017 roku wzrostu PKB w wysokości 3,6%, tak jak to zostało zapisane w założeniach do budżetu państwa, a to oznacza także optymizm w realizacji dochodów budżetowych.

Budżet na 2017 rok jest, bowiem ambitny po stronie dochodów, zaplanowano wyraźne zwiększenie dochodów z 4 podstawowych podatków VAT, akcyza, PIT, CIT (poprawa wydajności podatkowej) i to bardzo wyraźna, bo w przypadku VAT aż o 11% (ponad 14 mld zł) do kwoty 143,5 mld zł, akcyzy do kwoty 69 mld zł, z PIT o 3 mld zł (o 5%) do kwoty 51 mld zł i z CIT o 3 mld zł (o14%) do kwoty 30 mld zł.

Sumarycznie wydajność podatkowa w ciągu dwóch pierwszych lat rządów Prawa i Sprawiedliwości ma wzrosnąć do 15,4% PKB i będzie to wzrost aż o 2 punkty procentowe w stosunku do tego, co odziedziczyliśmy po rządach PO-PSL (na koniec roku 2015 wydajność ta wynosiła zaledwie 13,5% PKB).

Ten poziom dochodów budżetowych z kolei gwarantuje realizację zarówno celów rozwojowych zapisanych w budżecie jak celów społecznych w tym tak sztandarowych programów jak Rodzina 500plus i Mieszkanie plus.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

WSZYSTKIE PRAWA DO TEKSTU ZASTRZEŻONE. Możesz udostępniać tekst w serwisach społecznościowych, ale zabronione jest kopiowanie tekstu w części lub całości przez inne redakcje i serwisy internetowe bez zgody redakcji pod groźbą kary i może być ścigane prawnie.

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    Pan poseł, jak zawsze, potrafi ludzi rozbawić:). Wzrost PKB miał wynosić 3,5%, tymczasem, według aktualnych danych wynosi 2,5%. W obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej na świecie to dramat, bo to pokazuje, że nasza gospodarka będzie podatna mocno na jakikolwiek poważniejszy kryzys światowy, jeśli taki by się pojawił. Oczywiście, kraje Zachodniej Europy rosną wolniej, ale to nic dziwnego – zawsze kraje bardziej rozwinięte rosną wolniej. I ten spadający wzrost to wina obecnego rządu – bardzo duży spadek inwestycji, ucieczka kapitału z giełdy, brak efektów 500+ (konsumpcja wcale nie rośnie tak szybko jak PiS zapewniał, że będzie rosła po wprowadzeniu tego programu), opóźnienia w wypłacie środków unijnych, podatkowe uderzenia w biznes, czy wreszcie ogólnie zła atmosfera politycznie-prawna. No i są efekty

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