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Prezes NBP Adam Glapiński o przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku

1. Prezes Narodowego Banku Polskiego Adam Glapiński udzielił Polskiej Agencji Prasowej wywiadu dotyczącego stanu polskiej gospodarki i finansów publicznych, a także ich perspektyw w roku 2017.

Prezes NBP już na początku wywiadu, stwierdza, że rok 2017 zapowiada się dobrze i wymienia czynniki, które o tym decydują: najniższe w historii bezrobocie, przyzwoity na tle innych krajów UE wzrost gospodarczy, śladową inflację, brak dużych nierównowag na poszczególnych rynkach i stabilny sektor bankowy.

Dodaje także, że w roku 2016 deficyt budżetowy był rekordowy niski (prawdopodobnie zaledwie 54% planowanego), co oznacza również, że deficyt całego sektora finansów publicznych będzie niewiele wyższy niż 2% PKB, a w konsekwencji nastąpi niewielki wzrost długu publicznego w wielkościach bezwzględnych, a w wielkościach relatywnych (w relacji do PKB), będzie on nawet niższy niż w roku poprzednim.

Prezes NBP mówi także o kształtowaniu stóp procentowych przez Radę Polityki Pieniężnej, że są one na historycznie najniższym poziomie (podstawowa wynosi 1,5%), co oznacza, ze przy inflacji, która w końcu tego roku może sięgnąć 1,5%, realna podstawowa stopa procentowa banku centralnego będzie wynosiła 0%, co daje możliwość zaciągania kredytów po możliwie najniższych kosztach.

2. Wszystkie te czynniki powinny sprzyjać przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku, ale kluczowy będzie spodziewany wzrost inwestycji zarówno tych publicznych jak i prywatnych.

Rzeczywiście w 2016 roku doszło do załamania inwestycji publicznych w stosunku do roku 2015 spadły one aż, o 40%, ale rok 2017 powinien być pod tym względem przełomem, ponieważ jest 4 rok realizacji unijnej perspektywy finansowej na lata 2014-2020.

Samorządy, bo to one odpowiadają głównie za wydatkowanie tych środków, muszą rzeczywiście przyśpieszyć inwestycje współfinansowane z unijnego budżetu, bowiem jeżeli tego nie zrobią do roku 2020 nie uda się wszystkich środków wykorzystać.

Weszła już w życie znowelizowana ustawa o zamówieniach publicznych (tych zmian życzyła sobie Komisja Europejska), a minister rozwoju zdecydowanie uprościł krajowe przepisy związane z realizacją inwestycji wykorzystujących środki unijne, więc przyśpieszenie realizacji tych inwestycji już w 2017 roku jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

3. Są, więc warunki do osiągnięcia w 2017 roku wzrostu PKB w wysokości 3,6%, tak jak to zostało zapisane w założeniach do budżetu państwa, a to oznacza także optymizm w realizacji dochodów budżetowych.

Budżet na 2017 rok jest, bowiem ambitny po stronie dochodów, zaplanowano wyraźne zwiększenie dochodów z 4 podstawowych podatków VAT, akcyza, PIT, CIT (poprawa wydajności podatkowej) i to bardzo wyraźna, bo w przypadku VAT aż o 11% (ponad 14 mld zł) do kwoty 143,5 mld zł, akcyzy do kwoty 69 mld zł, z PIT o 3 mld zł (o 5%) do kwoty 51 mld zł i z CIT o 3 mld zł (o14%) do kwoty 30 mld zł.

Sumarycznie wydajność podatkowa w ciągu dwóch pierwszych lat rządów Prawa i Sprawiedliwości ma wzrosnąć do 15,4% PKB i będzie to wzrost aż o 2 punkty procentowe w stosunku do tego, co odziedziczyliśmy po rządach PO-PSL (na koniec roku 2015 wydajność ta wynosiła zaledwie 13,5% PKB).

Ten poziom dochodów budżetowych z kolei gwarantuje realizację zarówno celów rozwojowych zapisanych w budżecie jak celów społecznych w tym tak sztandarowych programów jak Rodzina 500plus i Mieszkanie plus.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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    Pan poseł, jak zawsze, potrafi ludzi rozbawić:). Wzrost PKB miał wynosić 3,5%, tymczasem, według aktualnych danych wynosi 2,5%. W obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej na świecie to dramat, bo to pokazuje, że nasza gospodarka będzie podatna mocno na jakikolwiek poważniejszy kryzys światowy, jeśli taki by się pojawił. Oczywiście, kraje Zachodniej Europy rosną wolniej, ale to nic dziwnego – zawsze kraje bardziej rozwinięte rosną wolniej. I ten spadający wzrost to wina obecnego rządu – bardzo duży spadek inwestycji, ucieczka kapitału z giełdy, brak efektów 500+ (konsumpcja wcale nie rośnie tak szybko jak PiS zapewniał, że będzie rosła po wprowadzeniu tego programu), opóźnienia w wypłacie środków unijnych, podatkowe uderzenia w biznes, czy wreszcie ogólnie zła atmosfera politycznie-prawna. No i są efekty

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Additional actions to take Something else to bear in mind if any missed payments show on your credit record is whether they were due to events outside of your control. If, for example, your employer went out of business, leaving you financially stranded, then you should contact each credit reference agency and explain what happened. They have the ability to add a note of correction to your credit file explaining the circumstances, which may well mitigate the effect of the default on future credit decisions. There are other things you can do that, while they do not in themselves boost your credit rating, will help you to avoid falling into future difficulties, and perhaps to pay things off faster. For example, take on some freelance work or a second job, or look for a job that pays more or is closer to home (so you save money on commuting). Make sure you aren’t paying more than you need to for things like your mobile phone, cable TV, fuel and broadband, and if you have a gym membership but can’t remember the last time you were there, cancel it. The more you have left after paying your bills, the better your chances of passing the affordability test. What is the affordability test? Every application for a mortgage or a remortgage is subject to an affordability assessment, and this is the case no matter what the credit status of the applicant might be. Potential lenders will look at income versus expenditure, taking everything into account, to arrive at a debt-to-income ratio. Since June 2014 the Financial Conduct Authority’s recommendation is that the debt-to-income ratio should be no higher than 45 for an offer of a mortgage or remortgage to be made. If you want to do a quick, rough calculation to see where you stand, then: make a list of all income you will receive over the year and divide by 12 (if all your income comes in monthly, just add it up) add up all your monthly bills – mortgage, credit card, etc. – then list all your other bills, whether quarterly, annual or whatever; add the monthly cost of these additional bills to your original total divide your monthly expenses by your monthly income and multiply the answer by 100, which will give you your debt-to-income ratio, expressed as a percentage The lower the number, the better. You can lower your debt-to-income ratio by either reducing your debt or increasing your income. What if you can’t wait for your credit score to improve over time? For those in need of a more immediate remortgaging solution, there are specialist lenders who work with applicants with low credit scores, offering deals that cannot be obtained from high street lenders. 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How to remortgage with bad credit: Bad credit remortgages are a tricky thing to explain in one article and still make it relevant for everyone, because every situation is different. Lenders have certain criteria but then for certain customers, it may be possible to overturn a case that would usually be a decline, if it is a strong proposition for a lender regardless. Sometimes, customers with huge savings and great LTV’s can obtain bad credit home mortgage refinance deals regardless of their credit history. Below is a step-by-step guide of the best way to remortgage for bad credit customers, to help them prepare for applications and to assist them in gathering the right info for us upfront, so we can be best placed to offer the right advice. Don’t go to your bank! This is a very important step. I know it sounds so biased coming from a mortgage broker website but it’s true. We are NOT anti-banks, we all need them. We are pro helping you get what’s best. Your bank is only ever in it to make a profit for themselves. There’s good money in mortgages and as the market is so competitive, these single bank advisers are taught to gain commitment from enquiries as soon as possible. This minimises the risk of you strolling into the bank next door and finding a better rate, or worse, going online. As such, they are actively encouraged and often targeted to credit score any customer willing to sit in their office – great if you don’t want to shop around and have clean credit – not great if you’re looking for poor credit remortgages or want the best deals you can get. Credit scoring with a lender that won’t lend to you is an unnecessary and damaging process, that can often leave you in a worse position because a further credit score has been added to your file. Get your credit report Before you do anything (even before you don’t go to your bank), you need to find out what you’re working with. To remortgage with bad credit history it is vital to understand which issues will effect you, and how to overcome them by finding a lender or repairing your credit file. Remember: It’s what’s on your file that’s important, so any late payments or other issues that haven’t been registered with a credit reference agency won’t usually matter. The only exceptions to this are when you are applying for a mortgage with your bank, where you may have exceeded on overdrafts or credit cards or had issues with other arrangements like direct debits bouncing etc, and your bank keeps a record of them on your account. These can be things they take into account with their mortgage credit scoring system, but aren’t usually required to report to credit reference agencies so only your bank would know about them. In these instances where your bank may give you a low or medium score because of issues on your account, other lenders outside of that banking group may give you a higher score – Something to keep in mind if you’re struggling to work out why you’ve been declined. Also, it’s often the case where we help customers who have never checked their file and fear the worst, often having buried their heads in the sand, to then go on to find out things aren’t as bad as they thought. Actually, its surprising for a lot of people what is available in terms of bad credit remortgages in the UK, and that there are lenders out there with flexible criteria that still have competitive rates. NOTE: We advise you sign up for all three of Experian, Check My File, and UK Credit Ratings. Each lender uses a different one and often times they show different information. It’ll take an extra 5 minutes but if you’ve had problems and have been declined with a lender before, then it’s very much worth it. You will NOT be penalised or scored any differently for searching your own credit file with these agencies – credit score is only affected by applications for credit. AND – ITS FREE! Sign up for the free trials below and order your reports now. Sign up for your free trials here… Get your credit rating Find a broker… Establish your Loan to value (LTV) Work out the property value and the amount of deposit/equity you’ll have after the new mortgage, to define the LTV. This figure is important because lenders base their criteria around the different LTVs, where those with higher LTVs must have better credit ratings than those with lower LTVs. Customers at 90 usually require good credit scores and clean (or very light) adverse credit, customers at 85 can qualify with lenders with mild adverse credit or severe but historical issues, and customers at 75 or less can often get mortgages with heavy adverse credit issues (depending on how recent they were). Establish affordability The broker must also check the loan you want is within the lenders limits. This is true of any mortgage, not just remortgages for bad credit. They tend to work out based on a multiple of your annual income – a rough guide is 4x. So for a borrower on £50k the max might be £200k, however, certain lenders can offer up to 5x and in special circumstances go above and beyond this. The figures used by lenders changes when it comes to deciding what is and isn’t classed as income – usually the basic salary (or net profit for sole traders/partnerships, or directors salary + dividends if ltd company), is used for the full value. Other income such as overtime, bonuses, other employed income, and state benefits, may either be taken 100, or as a lesser percentage, or not counted at all. Map your credit file to the most appropriate lender The broker will then research all the best remortgage deals for bad credit based on your loan amount and LTV, and work from the top down the list to the first lender that will be most likely to accept your application. Obviously if you have more severe credit history issues then a high street lender with the best deals is unlikely to approve you, so your rate and/or fees are likely to be higher. Don’t let that scare you however – you’d be surprised that the deals tend not to be astronomical and actually are still competitive. If there’s no one that will consider your application due to your credit history at that particular LTV, then be prepared to find more equity/deposit to lower the LTV into a bracket that lenders will consider (this may only be a few depending on your current situation, as lenders at 85 are much more flexible than at 90). 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