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Prezes NBP Adam Glapiński o przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku

1. Prezes Narodowego Banku Polskiego Adam Glapiński udzielił Polskiej Agencji Prasowej wywiadu dotyczącego stanu polskiej gospodarki i finansów publicznych, a także ich perspektyw w roku 2017.

Prezes NBP już na początku wywiadu, stwierdza, że rok 2017 zapowiada się dobrze i wymienia czynniki, które o tym decydują: najniższe w historii bezrobocie, przyzwoity na tle innych krajów UE wzrost gospodarczy, śladową inflację, brak dużych nierównowag na poszczególnych rynkach i stabilny sektor bankowy.

Dodaje także, że w roku 2016 deficyt budżetowy był rekordowy niski (prawdopodobnie zaledwie 54% planowanego), co oznacza również, że deficyt całego sektora finansów publicznych będzie niewiele wyższy niż 2% PKB, a w konsekwencji nastąpi niewielki wzrost długu publicznego w wielkościach bezwzględnych, a w wielkościach relatywnych (w relacji do PKB), będzie on nawet niższy niż w roku poprzednim.

Prezes NBP mówi także o kształtowaniu stóp procentowych przez Radę Polityki Pieniężnej, że są one na historycznie najniższym poziomie (podstawowa wynosi 1,5%), co oznacza, ze przy inflacji, która w końcu tego roku może sięgnąć 1,5%, realna podstawowa stopa procentowa banku centralnego będzie wynosiła 0%, co daje możliwość zaciągania kredytów po możliwie najniższych kosztach.

2. Wszystkie te czynniki powinny sprzyjać przyśpieszeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w 2017 roku, ale kluczowy będzie spodziewany wzrost inwestycji zarówno tych publicznych jak i prywatnych.

Rzeczywiście w 2016 roku doszło do załamania inwestycji publicznych w stosunku do roku 2015 spadły one aż, o 40%, ale rok 2017 powinien być pod tym względem przełomem, ponieważ jest 4 rok realizacji unijnej perspektywy finansowej na lata 2014-2020.

Samorządy, bo to one odpowiadają głównie za wydatkowanie tych środków, muszą rzeczywiście przyśpieszyć inwestycje współfinansowane z unijnego budżetu, bowiem jeżeli tego nie zrobią do roku 2020 nie uda się wszystkich środków wykorzystać.

Weszła już w życie znowelizowana ustawa o zamówieniach publicznych (tych zmian życzyła sobie Komisja Europejska), a minister rozwoju zdecydowanie uprościł krajowe przepisy związane z realizacją inwestycji wykorzystujących środki unijne, więc przyśpieszenie realizacji tych inwestycji już w 2017 roku jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

3. Są, więc warunki do osiągnięcia w 2017 roku wzrostu PKB w wysokości 3,6%, tak jak to zostało zapisane w założeniach do budżetu państwa, a to oznacza także optymizm w realizacji dochodów budżetowych.

Budżet na 2017 rok jest, bowiem ambitny po stronie dochodów, zaplanowano wyraźne zwiększenie dochodów z 4 podstawowych podatków VAT, akcyza, PIT, CIT (poprawa wydajności podatkowej) i to bardzo wyraźna, bo w przypadku VAT aż o 11% (ponad 14 mld zł) do kwoty 143,5 mld zł, akcyzy do kwoty 69 mld zł, z PIT o 3 mld zł (o 5%) do kwoty 51 mld zł i z CIT o 3 mld zł (o14%) do kwoty 30 mld zł.

Sumarycznie wydajność podatkowa w ciągu dwóch pierwszych lat rządów Prawa i Sprawiedliwości ma wzrosnąć do 15,4% PKB i będzie to wzrost aż o 2 punkty procentowe w stosunku do tego, co odziedziczyliśmy po rządach PO-PSL (na koniec roku 2015 wydajność ta wynosiła zaledwie 13,5% PKB).

Ten poziom dochodów budżetowych z kolei gwarantuje realizację zarówno celów rozwojowych zapisanych w budżecie jak celów społecznych w tym tak sztandarowych programów jak Rodzina 500plus i Mieszkanie plus.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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    Pan poseł, jak zawsze, potrafi ludzi rozbawić:). Wzrost PKB miał wynosić 3,5%, tymczasem, według aktualnych danych wynosi 2,5%. W obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej na świecie to dramat, bo to pokazuje, że nasza gospodarka będzie podatna mocno na jakikolwiek poważniejszy kryzys światowy, jeśli taki by się pojawił. Oczywiście, kraje Zachodniej Europy rosną wolniej, ale to nic dziwnego – zawsze kraje bardziej rozwinięte rosną wolniej. I ten spadający wzrost to wina obecnego rządu – bardzo duży spadek inwestycji, ucieczka kapitału z giełdy, brak efektów 500+ (konsumpcja wcale nie rośnie tak szybko jak PiS zapewniał, że będzie rosła po wprowadzeniu tego programu), opóźnienia w wypłacie środków unijnych, podatkowe uderzenia w biznes, czy wreszcie ogólnie zła atmosfera politycznie-prawna. No i są efekty

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    Remortgage with Bad Credit If you are a homeowner and need to raise cash for something – for example, a new car, a holiday or home renovations – a remortgage is an excellent method of releasing capital in an existing property. You can often also obtain a better deal at the same time, making it a win-win situation. However, if you have suffered financial problems since your initial mortgage was obtained, you might find that certain doors are now closed to you, and that might include the door to your current lender. As your circumstances have changed, the fact they gave you your initial mortgage is no guarantee they will agree to offer a remortgage deal. Even if they do, the terms they offer might be less favourable than your current deal. Having an adverse credit score can be an obstacle and present a real challenge to be overcome. If you are in this position take heart, as a bad credit score does not necessarily mean that you’ll be unable to remortgage your property. There are likely to be options available to you. To help you understand the situation, let’s first take a look at why lenders might be unwilling to offer you a remortgage deal. Bad credit calculator Find out if you can get a mortgage with our new calculator. Check here Why Might Lenders Be Unwilling to Remortgage? Most high street lenders will look upon bad credit remortgage applications in the same way they’d consider, and probably turn down, initial mortgage applications from people with bad credit. From a financial standpoint, a history of bad credit or an existing bad credit score is indicative of poor money management skills, and this makes those applicants a high risk for lenders. However, as with most things involving finance, there are a number of truths and myths which can become blurred. The biggest misconception is that the answer to a bad credit remortgage application will always be a resounding ‘no’. In truth, most homeowners will be able to obtain a remortgage deal, even with a number of credit issues on their record, such as: Missed or Late Payment Debt Management Plan Discharged Bankruptcy Defaults (a series of missed payments) County Court Judgments (CCJs) Individual Voluntary Arrangement (IVA) Every case is judged upon its own individual merits, which means we can’t guarantee remortgaging with bad credit will be possible. However, having said that, while each adverse credit event represents a black mark on a person’s credit record and has an impact on their credit score, none of them should be considered an immovable barrier to obtaining a remortgage deal. Can I get a bad credit mortgage? We Can Help Today How does a credit score work? Your credit score is the result of an assessment of financial and other information gathered about you by Experian, Equifax and Callcredit – the three main credit reference agencies that operate in the UK. They get their information from two main sources: other lending companies that have agreed to share data about their customers, and public records. Lending companies share information including how much a customer is in debt to them, how promptly they pay their bills, and if they pay in full, and whether their credit cards are maxed out. The information gathered from public records includes details of adverse credit events such as CCJs, bankruptcies and IVAs, plus information held on the electoral roll. High street lenders interpret this data in line with their own criteria and arrive at a credit score, based on which they will say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a remortgage application. If the decision isn’t clear cut, they might say ‘yes’, but charge higher fees and/or a higher rate of interest. They do this for two reasons; to offset what they see as an additional risk and because they know they can, as borrowers with a poor credit rating have fewer options than those with an exemplary record. What is my credit rating? Finding our your credit rating is easy. Find out your credit report Adverse credit events stay on a person’s record for six years, after which they are removed. In the majority of cases, even if the six year period isn’t up yet, the further in the past something is, the less impact it will have on your credit score and therefore on a lender’s decision. However, even after they have ‘dropped off’ the record, if you are asked about certain types of adverse credit event – such as a previous bankruptcy or property repossession – you must declare it. While there are options available to those with an adverse credit score looking to remortgage a property, it is always recommended that you look to improve your credit score wherever possible. How does a credit score work? There are some positive steps you can take that will improve your situation and encourage lenders to look more favourably upon your application. Arguably the most important thing you can do is to improve your credit score. Improving your credit score is a continuous process, not something that can be achieved overnight – you must persevere with it to get results. However, if you are taking the right steps, you will soon begin to see some small improvements. Having a healthy credit score will make a huge difference to your future financial dealings. We always recommend speaking to a qualified adviser with regard to putting together a plan to improve your credit score; however, there are some immediate actions you can take to put your credit rating back on track. These include: Get a copy of your credit report from each of the UK’s three credit reference agencies – Experian, Equifax and Callcredit – and check that the details they hold are correct (they may hold different details, so do get your report from all three, not just one) Regularly update the personal details held on your credit report Make sure you are registered on the electoral roll Keep track of your credit card balances; ideally try to always pay more than the minimum to drive the balance down, and take care not to go over your agreed credit limit Use your calendar to make sure you pay your bills on time and manage your monthly income Cancel all lines of credit that are not in use, such as store cards or ‘just in case’ credit cards (but see below for an alternative option) Build up a positive credit history; for example, if you have a credit card that you don’t use, rather than cancelling it, use it at least once a month, perhaps for buying petrol or groceries – but make sure you pay it off in full every time, don’t build up additional debt Resist the temptation to take out payday loans, as they are considered to be a red flag showing that you cannot manage your finances month to month Moving forward, leave any good debt on your report For more suggestions as to how you can repair your credit rating, check out our page of simple tips. Additional actions to take Something else to bear in mind if any missed payments show on your credit record is whether they were due to events outside of your control. If, for example, your employer went out of business, leaving you financially stranded, then you should contact each credit reference agency and explain what happened. They have the ability to add a note of correction to your credit file explaining the circumstances, which may well mitigate the effect of the default on future credit decisions. There are other things you can do that, while they do not in themselves boost your credit rating, will help you to avoid falling into future difficulties, and perhaps to pay things off faster. For example, take on some freelance work or a second job, or look for a job that pays more or is closer to home (so you save money on commuting). Make sure you aren’t paying more than you need to for things like your mobile phone, cable TV, fuel and broadband, and if you have a gym membership but can’t remember the last time you were there, cancel it. The more you have left after paying your bills, the better your chances of passing the affordability test. What is the affordability test? Every application for a mortgage or a remortgage is subject to an affordability assessment, and this is the case no matter what the credit status of the applicant might be. Potential lenders will look at income versus expenditure, taking everything into account, to arrive at a debt-to-income ratio. Since June 2014 the Financial Conduct Authority’s recommendation is that the debt-to-income ratio should be no higher than 45 for an offer of a mortgage or remortgage to be made. If you want to do a quick, rough calculation to see where you stand, then: make a list of all income you will receive over the year and divide by 12 (if all your income comes in monthly, just add it up) add up all your monthly bills – mortgage, credit card, etc. – then list all your other bills, whether quarterly, annual or whatever; add the monthly cost of these additional bills to your original total divide your monthly expenses by your monthly income and multiply the answer by 100, which will give you your debt-to-income ratio, expressed as a percentage The lower the number, the better. You can lower your debt-to-income ratio by either reducing your debt or increasing your income. What if you can’t wait for your credit score to improve over time? For those in need of a more immediate remortgaging solution, there are specialist lenders who work with applicants with low credit scores, offering deals that cannot be obtained from high street lenders. So if your need is urgent and you are asking yourself, ‘Can I remortgage with bad credit?’ the answer is ‘yes’. Get in touch today for free initial advice and no-obligation quotes from our team of experienced bad credit brokers. How can we help? Just Mortgage Brokers have experience of working with property owners at all levels, from those who are relatively new homeowners to highly experienced landlords with extensive property portfolios. We also have unlimited access to the UK mortgage market and many years of experience of working with a network of bad credit lenders across the country. That means we are not restricted to products from any one particular lender but can work with a diverse range of specialist lenders to secure the remortgage deal you require. This combination of impartiality and unlimited market access gives us the very best chance of obtaining a competitively priced bad credit remortgage. We know exactly where to turn to find a mortgage to suit the particular needs of each and every client, regardless of their credit history. If you have a history of bad credit and are looking to remortgage a property, speak to Just Mortgage Brokers today to get the right deal for you.

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