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Niższy niż planowano wzrost gospodarczy, a dochody budżetowe mimo to wyższe

1. Wczoraj Główny Urząd Statystyczny podał tzw. szybki szacunek wzrostu PKB w roku 2016, wyniósł on 2,8% i był niższy od tego, który przyjęto do budżetu państwa na rok poprzedni, aż o jeden punkt procentowy.

Wzrost PKB napędzała go głównie konsumpcja (w tym wydatki z programu Rodzina 500plus i eksport, a w dół ciągnęły głównie inwestycje na skutek załamania inwestycji publicznych i stagnacji w inwestycjach prywatnych.

Ale tak naprawdę rok 2016 to już przeszłość i w związku z tym należy się zastanowić jak będą się kształtowały te 3 czynniki wpływające na wzrost PKB w całym roku 2017, a przede wszystkim czy nastąpi tzw. impuls inwestycyjny?

Wydatki konsumpcyjne będą napędzane przez kontynuację programu Rodzina 500plus (w roku 2017 wydatki ten program wyniosą 23 mld zł), eksport netto powinien także wpływać pozytywnie na wzrost (ze względu na korzystne dla eksporterów kształtowanie się kurs złotego w stosunku do euro i dolara), powinny także zostać odblokowane inwestycje.

Przyjęta została znowelizowana ustawa o zamówieniach publicznych (dostosowana do wymogów prawa europejskiego), muszą przyśpieszyć także wydatki inwestycyjne w ramach regionalnych programów operacyjnych kierowanych przez samorządy województw, ponieważ rok 2017 jest już 4 rokiem perspektywy finansowej na lata 2014-2020 i do jej końca zostaną zaledwie 3 lata.

2. Przy tym niższym niż planowano wzroście gospodarczym, minister finansów zrealizował jednak dochody budżetowe, które były sumarycznie wyższe o tych zaplanowanych o blisko 1 mld zł (wyniosły 314,6 mld zł).

Co więcej dochody budżetowe były wyższe o około 9% od tych z roku 2015, co oznacza, że skuteczna była polityka uszczelniania wpływów ze wszystkich 4 podstawowych podatków (VAT, akcyza, PIT i CIT).

Ponieważ nie zrealizowano także w pełni wydatków budżetowych (wiceminister Skiba na konferencji prasowej podał, że wyniosły one ok.361 mld zł, czyli 98% tych planowanych), także deficyt budżetu państwa jest wyraźnie niższy od tego planowanego (wyniósł 46,3 mld zł, czyli 85% tego planowanego).

Wszystko to będzie miało korzystny wpływ na deficyt całego sektora finansów publicznych (deficyt budżetu państwa, deficyt sektora samorządowego i systemu ubezpieczeń społecznych), który według ministra Skiby wyniósł 2,8-2,9% PKB i był niższy od deficytu określanego przez tzw. kryteria z Maastricht (3% PKB).

Tak dobry wynik sektora, będzie miał miejsce mimo tego, że Komisja Europejska zablokowała Polsce możliwość zaliczenia całości wpływu ze sprzedaży częstotliwości LTE w wysokości 10 mld zł do liczenia wyniku sektora finansów publicznych.

Mamy te wpływy rozłożyć na 15 lat i wliczać do tego wyniku po 1/15 rocznie, co oznacza, że księgowo deficyt sektora finansów publicznych jest przynajmniej 0,5 punktu procentowego wyższy niż jest to w rzeczywistości.

3. Te wyniki budżetu (i całego sektora finansów publicznych) przy niższym niż zaplanowano wzroście PKB w roku 2016, nakazują z jeszcze większą natarczywością zadawać pytania politykom Platformy i PSL, jak to się działo podczas ich rządów, że dochody podatkowe albo malały w kolejnych latach ich rządzenia, a jeżeli już rosły to w wymiarze symbolicznym?

Politycy tych ugrupowań, nie są skorzy do odpowiadania na nie, ponieważ obnaża ono swoiste polityczne przyzwolenie na wyłudzenia podatkowe, jakie miały miejsce w całym okresie 8-letnich rządów koalicji PO-PSL.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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