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Polska jednym z liderów wzrostu gospodarczego w UE

1. Eurostat opublikował dane dotyczące wzrostu PKB w I kwartale tego roku w porównaniu do analogicznego kwartału roku ubiegłego dotyczące wszystkich państw członkowskich, z którego wynika, że Polska jest jednym z liderów tego wzrostu.

Według tych danych wzrost PKB w Polsce w kwartale 2017 roku wyniósł 4,2%, trochę wyższy był tylko wzrost PKB w Estonii i wyniósł 4,4% ale w związku z tym, że ten kraj ma jednak „małą” gospodarkę, to właśnie nasz kraj należy uznać za lidera pod tym względem.

Na tle Polski bardzo „blado” wygląda wzrost gospodarczy w dużych krajach strefy euro, we Francji to to zaledwie 1,4%, we Włoszech 2,1%, w Niemczech 2,9%, w Hiszpanii 3%, a w ogarniętej od 7 lat kryzysem Grecji po raz kolejny mieliśmy spadek PKB wynoszący 0,3%.

2. Przypomnijmy tylko, że pod koniec maja Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS) opublikował komunikat w sprawie wzrostu PKB za I kwartał 2017 roku, z którego wynika, że PKB niewyrównany sezonowo w ujęciu rok do roku wzrósł o 4%, a wyrównany sezonowo nawet o 4,1%.

Jak wyjaśniali wtedy przedstawiciele GUS od strony popytowej, tradycyjnie już ciągnął wzrost PKB „silnik” konsumpcji głównie prywatnej, ale także publicznej i dołączył do niego także „silnik” inwestycji, które w poprzednim roku wyraźnie spowolniły.

Rzeczywiście inwestycje ruszyły i to zarówno te publiczne rządowe i samorządowe w związku z przyspieszeniem wydatkowania środków z budżetu unijnego, ale także inwestycje przedsiębiorców prywatnych, co oznacza, że „silnik” inwestycyjny będzie napędzał wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce przez cały rok 2017.

Trudno oczywiście wyrokować czy to wyraźne przyśpieszenie wzrostu gospodarczego w I kwartale utrzyma się na podobnym poziomie przez cały rok 2017, ale wszystko wskazuje na to, że jednak wzrost gospodarczy w tym roku będzie wyraźnie wyższy niż ten przyjęty w założeniach budżetowych w wysokości 3,6% PKB.

3. Dobrą sytuację w gospodarce w I kwartale tego roku potwierdzają także wpływy do budżetu państwa, które za okres styczeń – marzec dochody budżetu państwa były wyższe aż o 8,4 mld zł w porównaniu z tym samym okresem roku ubiegłego, przy czym dochody podatkowe wzrosły aż 23,8 % r/r. (niższy wzrost całości dochodów budżetowych w porównaniu do poprzedniego roku wynika z faktu, że w lutym poprzedniego roku do budżetu wpłynęło 7 mld zł z przetargu na LTE i były to dochody jednorazowe).

Na szczególne podkreślenie zasługuje fakt, że w okresie styczeń – marzec odnotowano wzrost dochodów we wszystkich rodzajach podatków w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego (na szczególną uwagę zasługuje wzrost dochodów z VAT-u o ponad 40% i CIT o ponad 15%).

Kwotowe dochody z 4 podstawowych podatków (VAT, akcyza, PIT i CIT), były wyższe aż o 14,5 mld zł za 3 miesiące tego roku w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego, a razem z tzw. podatkiem bankowym, (który w poprzednim roku jeszcze nie obowiązywał w okresie styczeń-luty), aż o 15,6 mld zł o tych z roku poprzedniego.

Liderowanie Polski w UE pod względem poziomu wzrostu PKB jest miarą sukcesu rządu premier Beaty Szydło w polskiej gospodarce i finansach publicznych, co staje się jednocześnie powodem do mocnego bólu głowy totalnej opozycji.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

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