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Dzisiaj rozpoczynają się negocjacje w sprawie Brexitu

1. Mimo tego, że po wyborach w W. Brytanii formalnie nie powstał nowy rząd i nie przeszedł on głosowania w Parlamencie, tak jak wcześniej to było zaplanowane, rozpoczynają się negocjacje w sprawie Brexitu.

Wczoraj minister ds. Brexitu David Davis potwierdził, że zgodnie z wynikiem ubiegłorocznego referendum W. Brytania wystąpi z Unii Europejskiej i to potwierdzenie było konieczne.

Bowiem po ostatnim spotkaniu z premier Theresą May prezydenta Francji Emmanuela Macrona ten ostatni zasiał wątpliwości w tej sprawie stwierdzeniem, „że dopóki nie zaczną się negocjacje w sprawie Brexitu, drzwi UE pozostają otwarte dla W. Brytanii”.

2. W. Brytania zaczyna te negocjacje ze słabszych pozycji, ponieważ wprawdzie partia konserwatywna wygrała wybory zdobywając 318 mandatów, ale utraciła większość w parlamencie (326 mandatów) i dopiero wsparcie 10 reprezentantów północnoirlandzkiej Partii Demokratycznych Unionistów, pozwali na jej uzyskanie.

Taka sytuacja poważnie osłabia samą premier Therese May i kierowaną przez nią partię konserwatystów w polityce wewnętrznej, ale także w negocjacjach z UE-27 o warunkach Brexitu.

Przypomnijmy bowiem, że uruchamiając proces Brexitu na podstawie art. 50 Traktatu Lizbońskiego pod koniec marca tego roku, w liście do przewodniczącego Rady Donalda Tuska, premier W. Brytanii Theresa May napisała o „twardym” Brexicie.

Informowała Radę, że przyszłe stosunki z UE nie będą obejmować członkostwa w rynku wewnętrznym, członkostwa w unii celnej, swobodnego przepływu ludzi, a także, że Zjednoczone Królestwo wyraziło zamiar wystąpienia spod jurysdykcji Trybunału Sprawiedliwości Unii Europejskiej.

Dla szefów instytucji unijnych, ale także premierów wiodących krajów w UE, był to swoisty szok, bo zakładali, że sprowadzą W. Brytanię na pozycję kraju proszącego, a on zaproponował „twarde” rozstanie.

3. Wprawdzie jak wynika z dotychczasowych konsultacji, W. Brytania jest gotowa płacić składkę do budżetu UE do końca tej perspektywy finansowej, czyli do roku 2020 (płaci około 10 mld euro netto rocznie), ale pod warunkiem, że do 30 marca 2019 roku zostanie zawarte porozumienie o warunkach wyjścia i umowa dotycząca relacji z UE-27 po tym fakcie.

Jeżeli jednak takiego porozumienia nie będzie i nastąpi tzw. wyjście nieuporządkowane W. Brytanii płatności tego kraju do budżetu UE skończą się już w roku 2019, a wymiana towarów i usług z UE-27, zostanie objęta stawkami celnym i ograniczeniami pozataryfowymi w oparciu o regulacje WTO.

A bilans handlowy tego kraju z UE jest ujemny i wyniósł w 2016 roku blisko 90 mld GBP (UE sprzedaje znacznie więcej do UE, niż stamtąd kupuje), przy czym 5 piątka największych eksporterów do W. Brytanii to: Niemcy-60 mld GBP, Holandia- 32 mld GBP, Francja- 23 mld GBP, Belgia-22 mld GBP, Włochy-16 mld GBP.

Razem eksport tych 5 krajów unijnych do W. Brytanii to ponad 200 mld GBP i wydaje się ciągle możliwe, że w toku tych 2-letnich negocjacji, to właśnie eksporterzy z UE-27, przywołają unijnych polityków do porządku i wzajemnie korzystne porozumienie z W. Brytanią, zostanie jednak zawarte.

4. Z kolei według UE dwa podstawowe wątki, na których mają się koncentrować negocjacje w pierwszym etapie mają dotyczyć: praw obywateli 27 krajów członkowskich mieszkających na terenie W. Brytanii i praw obywateli tego kraju, którzy po Brexicie pozostaną na terenie UE, oraz zobowiązań finansowych, jakie zaciągnął ten kraj.

W tej pierwszej sprawie ma być zachowana zasada wzajemności w traktowaniu obywateli krajów UE mieszkających na terenie W. Brytanii i Brytyjczyków, którzy mieszkają na terenie 27-ki.

Została ona doprecyzowana w ten sposób, że Londynowi ma być postawiony wymóg przyznania pozwoleń na pobyt stały każdemu z obywateli unijnych mieszkających na terenie W. Brytanii, jeśli taka osoba mieszka na wyspach więcej niż 5 lat.

W sprawach finansowych z kolei chodzi o podkreślenie, że mamy do czynienia z zobowiązaniami, które W. Brytania zaciągnęła wobec pozostałej 27-ki, nie tylko w wieloletnim budżecie na lata 2014-2020 i z nich wszystkich się do końca wywiąże, niezależnie od tego, kiedy przypadną rzeczywiste płatności z nich wynikające.

Dopiero gdyby w ocenie Rady na jesieni tego roku w obydwu tych sprawach doszło do „wystarczających postępów”, UE ma przejść do negocjacji kształtujących relacje handlowe pomiędzy Wspólnotą, a W. Brytanią.

5. Wyniki wyborów parlamentarnych stawiają jednak W. Brytanię w trudniejszej sytuacji niż była do tej pory, chybotliwa większość w parlamencie czyni rząd Theresy May, słabszym w negocjacjach z UE-27.

Wygląda więc na to, że „twardego” Brexitu raczej nie będzie, a jeżeli nie uda się do końca marca 2019 roku wynegocjować porozumienia z W. Brytanią, nastąpi nieuporządkowane wyjście tego kraju z UE ze wszystkimi tego negatywnymi konsekwencjami i to dla obydwu stron tego procesu.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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