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Trump musi zmienić politykę względem rynku dronów

Raport dla prezydenta USA wskazuje, że Donald Trump musi ustabilizować rynek dronów.

W opracowaniu twórcy zasad autonomii w systemach uzbrojenia dla Departamentu Obrony Paula Scharre, badaczka dla Zgromadzenia Parlamentarnego NATO Alexandra Sander, rządowy ekspert ds. bezpieczeństwa USA Elisa C. Ewers i była doradczyni senatora Toma Cottona radzą m. in. zmniejszenie ograniczeń na eksport dronów. Wedle twórców raportu administracja Trumpa powinna traktować je jak zwykłe samoloty. Zachęca, aby rząd też zmienił politykę MTCR (Missisle Technology Control Regime), czyli ustalenia USA, Wielkiej Brytanii, Japonii, Włoszech, Francji, Niemiec i Kanady w zakresie ograniczeń w dostępie do technologii przenoszenia broni masowego rażenia.

Zdaniem raportu Departament Obrony USA musi m. in. uwzględnić drony przenoszące broń jądrową. Zaleca przeprowadzenie gier wojennych, aby określić jakie skutki dla polityki międzynarodowej mają drony przenoszące tzw. broń ABC (jądrową, biologiczną, chemiczną). Cytowani autorzy chcą, aby USA zwiększyło liczbę sygnatariuszy regulacji w sprawie dronów „Joint Declaration for the Export and Subsequent Use of Armerd or Strike-Enabled Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”.

Autorzy zauważyli w czerwcu 2017, że „ponad 30 krajów ma lub rozwija uzbrojone drony i przynajmniej 90 krajów zarówno jak aktorzy pozapaństwowi posiadają nieuzbrojone drony”. Tym samym odnotowują oni wpływ na politykę międzynarodową i jej stabilność. Zwłaszcza, że dostawcami technologii dającą możliwość przenoszenia rakiet stały się m. in. Chiny oraz Izrael. Od 2015 USA stara się o uregulowanie tej kwestii, odkąd podjęły środki na rzecz określenia zgody na rzecz „zasad właściwego użycia”. Podpisana w październiku 2016 „Joint Declaration for the Export and Subsequent Use of Armerd or Strike-Enabled Unmanned Aerial Vehicles” ustaliła reguły użycia nowej technologii przez 40 państw i zarazem sygnatariuszy porozumienia.

Zdaniem twórców raportu „Drone proliferarion” na Trumpa zpada odpowiedzialność za ustalenie reguł użycia dronów, aby to USA dyktowało warunki innym z uwzględnieniem, że drony rozpowszechniły się na świecie. Wyróżnili w tym aspekcie cele polityczne w zakresie utrzymania swobody w użyciu dronów przez USA, utrzymania przewagi technologicznej, zwiększenie zdolności wojskowych z uwzględnieniem kluczowych partnerów i sojuszników, „zapobiegania lub osłabienia rozpowszechniania się potencjalnie niebezpiecznej technologii dronów”, zwracanie uwagi, jak inni ich używają.

Wedle raportu część obowiązujących zasad odwołuje się do realiów z ograniczonym dostępem do dronów i ma korzenie w myśleniu, jakie rozwijało się podczas Zimnej Wojny takich jak zwiad lotniczy bezzałogowcami podczas wojny w Wietnamie (np. dostarczyły wtedy 93% zdjęć w trakcie kampanii nalotów bombowych Linebacker II). Odkąd w 1995 r. pojawił się Predator w Bośni świat wszedł w nową erę. Od października 2000 r. to właśnie te maszyny zajmowały się poszukiwaniem Osamy Bin Ladena, a rok później zaczęły dokonywać ataków za pomocą rakiet Hellfire.

W czerwcu 2016 r. administracja Baracka Obamy podjęła kwestię ofiar cywilnych w trakcie użycia dronów. Wedle ustaleń między 2009 a 2015 rokiem zabito 2300-2600 terrorystów. Zginęło od 64 do 116 cywili, co podał dyrektor wywiadu narodowego USA. Organizacje pozarządowe określiły straty w osobach postronnych na 200-900 zabitych. Od 2013 r. USA wydało zgodę na użycie dronów przez CIA.

Zarazem 60% dronów dla wojska eksportuje Izrael. Dominują tutaj maszyny do zwiadu, a uzbrojone maszyny między 2010 a 2014 r. stanowiły 2,5% (11 z 439) ogółu. Izraelskiego Hermesa 450 używa nawet amerykańska służba graniczna. Tanie i gotowe do uzbrajania drony, odpowiedniki amerykańskich Reapers, oferują Chiny, a kupują je m. in. Jordania, Irak i Arabia Saudyjska, Nigeria, Kazachstan, Turkmenistan, czy Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie. Znajdujący się w Sztokholmie Instytut na Rzecz Pokojowych Badań wskazał, że na wiosnę 2017 r. uzbrojone drony posiadała m. in. Rosja i Bliski Wschód z wyłączeniem Syrii. Sprawę komplikuje fakt, że na przełomie 2016 i 2017 roku uzbrojone drony wykorzystuje do ataków ISIS oraz Hezbollah, a przygotowuje się do tego Hamas.

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