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Na półrocze w budżecie państwa zamiast deficytu wysoka nadwyżka

1. Nie ma jeszcze wprawdzie oficjalnych danych ministerstwa finansów dotyczących realizacji budżetu państwa po 6 miesiącach tego roku (zostaną podane pod koniec tego miesiąca), ale już teraz można zakładać, że zostanie w nim odnotowana paromiliardowa nadwyżka.

Jak bowiem poinformował „Dziennik. Gazeta Prawna” w połowie czerwca tego roku Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) wpłacił do budżetu państwa kwotę 8,74 mld zł, czyli 95% wypracowanego zysku za rok 2016, a ponieważ budżet państwa na 2017 rok zakładał zerowy zysk banku centralnego, dochód ten był na tyle wysoki, że spowodował pojawienie się wyraźnej nadwyżki budżetowej.

Drugą ważną przyczyna pojawienia się tej nadwyżki, są rekordowe wpływy z podatku VAT, które sięgnęły po upływie półrocza astronomicznej kwoty 80 mld zł, czyli aż 55% planowanych wpływów z tego podatku.

Przy czym należy zaznaczyć, że wpływy z VAT na 2017 rok zostały zaplanowane na poziomie aż o 11% wyższym niż w roku 2016 i mają osiągnąć aż 143, 5 mld zł, czyli o blisko 17 mld zł więcej niż wykonanie z roku 2016.

2. Dane dotyczące budżetu państwa za pierwsze półrocze tego roku nie zaskakują, ponieważ już po 5 miesiącach tego roku, za które mamy oficjalne dane resortu finansów, sytuacja finansów państwa była bardziej niż dobra.

Przypomnijmy, że po upływie 5 miesięcy zrealizowano 143,3 mld zł tj. 44 % planowanych dochodów, 143,5 mld zł tj. 37,3% planowanych wydatków, co oznacza deficyt budżetowy w wysokości 0,2 mld zł, a więc zaledwie 0,3% tego planowanego na cały rok (został zaplanowany w wysokości 59,3 mld zł).

Według dostępnych danych był to najniższy od 1992 roku (a więc od 25 lat) deficyt budżetowy w Polsce po 5 pięciu miesiącach jego realizacji.

Dochody budżetu państwa za okres styczeń – maj były wyższe aż o 14,2 mld zł w porównaniu z tym samym okresem roku ubiegłego, przy czym dochody podatkowe wzrosły aż 18,8 % r/r. (niższy wzrost całości dochodów budżetowych w porównaniu do poprzedniego roku wynika z faktu, że w lutym poprzedniego roku do budżetu wpłynęło 7 mld zł z przetargu na LTE i były to dochody jednorazowe).

Na szczególne podkreślenie zasługuje fakt, że w okresie styczeń – maj odnotowano wzrost dochodów we wszystkich rodzajach podatków w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego (na szczególną uwagę zasługuje wzrost dochodów z VAT-u o ponad 30% i CIT o ponad 14%).

3. Przypomnijmy także, że po 5 miesiącach, dochody z podatku VAT były wyższe aż o 30% tj. o 15,9mld zł, dochody z podatku akcyzowego i podatku od gier były wyższe, o 3,9 % czyli o ok. 1 mld zł, z podatku PIT były wyższe o 7,4 % tj. o około 1,4 mld zł, wreszcie z podatku CIT o 14,3 % tj. o około 1,9 mld zł.

Z kolei dochody z podatku od instytucji finansowych, (czyli tzw. podatku bankowego) wyniosły w okresie styczeń-maj 1,8 mld zł, co oznacza, że jeżeli utrzymana zostanie ta dynamika całoroczne dochody powinny przekroczyć 4 mld zł i będą wyraźnie wyższe od tych zaplanowanych w budżecie z tego tytułu (3,9 mld zł).

A więc dochody z 4 podstawowych podatków (VAT, akcyza, PIT i CIT), były wyższe aż o 20,2 mld zł za 5 miesięcy tego roku w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego, a razem z tzw. podatkiem bankowym, (który w poprzednim roku jeszcze nie obowiązywał w okresie styczeń-luty), aż o 22 mld zł o tych z roku poprzedniego.

4. Wygląda na to, że tendencje wzrostu wpływów ze wszystkich podatków w stosunku do wielkości planowanych, były kontynuowane także w czerwcu tego roku, co oznacza wyraźne zmniejszenie planowanego deficytu budżetowego.

Dodatkowo po wpłacie 95% zysku dokonanego przez NBP wygląda na to, że deficyt budżetowy na koniec tego roku, może być aż o 30 mld zł mniejszy niż planowano i w związku z tym wyniesie niecałe 30 mld zł.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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    12 lipca 2017 at 15:02

    Zobaczymy co będzie w połowie 2018 roku, kiedy wyczerpią się siuchty kreatywnej księgowości. No i kiedy trzeba będzie oddać przedsiębiorstwom VAT zapłacony budżetowi „z góry”, ale który przedsiębiorcy mają prawo odliczyć, a budżet ma na to 180 dni (chyba, że zacznie kontrolę VAT, wtedy do końca kontroli nie musi nic oddać, a kontrola może trwać BEZTERMINOWO – ale wtedy nastąpi niewyobrażalna katastrofa gospodarcza).

    • Szukający Drogi

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      Nie martw się niepisior. Nie ma złodziei przy korycie, wydają dodatkowe 20 mld zł na 500+, a po połowie roku jest po raz pierwszy praktycznie zerowy deficyt. Dopóki pisowi wystarczy pieniędzy na ich rozdawanie, nie zmiękną w temacie imigrantów dopóty żaden Grzeniu i Ryniu nie ma szans ze swoimi populizmami i nienawistnym pustosłowiem.

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    23 listopada 2017 at 01:11

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