Z zagranicy

Banki i agencje ratingowe na wyścigi podwyższają prognozy wzrostu PKB w Polsce

 

W ostatnich dniach pojawiły się uaktualnione prognozy dotyczące wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce w tym roku prezentowane przez banki i agencje ratingowe, które są blisko o jeden punkt procentowy wyższe niż te prezentowane na początku roku.

I tak bank Goldman Sachs ogłosił, że wzrost PKB w Polsce w tym roku wyniesie aż 4,4%, bank Pekao S.A.- 4,3%, z kolei agencja ratingowa Moody’s wcześniej bardzo krytyczna wobec naszego kraju, także podniosła prognozę wzrostu do 4,3%.

Należy podkreślić, że szczególnie zagraniczne banki i agencje ratingowe jesienią poprzedniego roku prognozowały, że wzrost gospodarczy w 2017 roku nie będzie wyższy niż 3% PKB, by wiosną tego roku podwyższyć go do 3,5%, a teraz w końcówce tego roku o kolejny punkt procentowy.

Jedna z trzech największych światowych agencji ratingowych – Moody’s ponad 2 tygodnie temu, dosyć niespodziewanie podniosła prognozę wzrostu gospodarczego dla Polski z 3,2% PKB do 4,3% PKB (a więc aż o 1,1 punktu procentowego), a z kolei prognozę deficytu sektora finansów publicznych obniżyła z 2,9 % PKB do 2,5% PKB.

Moody’s w towarzyszącej komunikatowi o podwyższeniu prognozy wzrostu gospodarczego informacji podkreśliła, że „wzrost będzie napędzany solidną konsumpcją prywatną, ale także powolną, ale stabilną odbudową w inwestycjach, co odzwierciedla korzystne warunki w otoczeniu zagranicznym i wyższe napływy funduszy z Unii Europejskiej”.

Agencja podkreśliła także, że „wyższy wzrost gospodarczy i lepsza realizacja budżetu szczególnie, jeżeli chodzi o wpływy z podatku VAT, znacząco zwiększają szansę, że deficyt sektora finansów publicznych, będzie wyraźnie poniżej kryterium z Maastricht, czyli 3% PKB”.

Z kolei w ostatnich dniach znacząco podwyższyły swoje prognozy banki, Goldman Sachs aż do 4,4% PKB, a polski Pekao S.A do 4,3% PKB, zwracając uwagę na trwałe fundamenty tego wzrostu i dobrą sytuację w sektorze finansów publicznych.

Agencje i zagraniczne banki, które wcześniej prowadziły politykę obniżania ratingów dla naszego kraju, muszą teraz „je poprawiać” także dlatego, że zarówno polskie jak i europejskie instytucje podają za kolejne kwartały tego roku, twarde dane makroekonomiczne, potwierdzające, że polska gospodarka jest na trwałej ścieżce wzrostu.

Pod koniec maja, a później pod koniec sierpnia tego roku Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS) opublikował komunikaty w sprawie wzrostu PKB za I i II kwartał, z których wynikało, że PKB niewyrównany sezonowo w ujęciu rok do roku w I kwartale wzrósł o 4%, a w II o 3,9%.

Jak wyjaśniali w komunikatach przedstawiciele GUS od strony popytowej, tradycyjnie już ciągnął wzrost PKB „silnik” konsumpcji głównie prywatnej, ale także publicznej i dołączył do niego także „silnik” inwestycji, które w poprzednim roku wyraźnie spowolniły.

Rzeczywiście inwestycje ruszyły i to zarówno te publiczne rządowe i samorządowe w związku z przyspieszeniem wydatkowania środków z budżetu unijnego, ale także inwestycje przedsiębiorców prywatnych, co oznacza, że „silnik” inwestycyjny, będzie napędzał wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce przez cały rok 2017.

Należy dodać jeszcze jeden ważny czynnik wpływający na wzrost inwestycji, mianowicie optymizm Polaków, bowiem optymizm jest najlepszy od lat, a to jest właśnie podstawa podejmowania decyzji, jeżeli chodzi o inwestycje w gospodarce.
Jeszcze bardziej optymistyczne dane dotyczące polskiej gospodarki podał Eurostat, który opublikował ostatnio dane dotyczące wzrostu PKB w II kwartale tego roku w porównaniu do analogicznego kwartału roku ubiegłego dotyczące wszystkich państw członkowskich, z którego wynika, że Polska jest jednym z liderów tego wzrostu.

Według tych danych wzrost PKB w Polsce w II kwartale 2017 roku wyniósł aż 4,4% (to wzrost wyrównany sezonowo, czyli z taką samą ilością dni roboczych jak w II kwartale 2016 roku) i wyprzedziły nas pod tym względem tylko 3 unijne kraje: Rumunia ze wzrostem wynoszącym 5,7%, Łotwa ze wzrostem 4,8 % i Czechy 4,5%.

W tej sytuacji agencjom ratingowym i bankom, nie pozostawało nic innego jak szybko skorygować w górę prognozy gospodarcze dla Polski zarówno w roku 2017 jak i w 2018, tyle tylko, że podwyższenie poziomu wzrostu gospodarczego aż o 1,1 punktu procentowego w tym roku, potwierdza, że poprzednie prognozy miały raczej charakter polityczny niż merytoryczny.

Fot. Pixabay

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125 komentarzy

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  1. Egzorcysta

    7 października 2017 at 14:23

    Przciez to dla Polaka prawie nie ma znaczenia.Wzrost gospodarczy bedzie jak np ktos rozwali leb jakiemus politykowi chazraskiemu w Polsce, poniewaz kilku lekarzy bedzie musialo go skladac.I suma pieniedzy jaka bedzie potrzbna, to nic innego jak wzrost gospodarczy.Wyobrazmy sobie ze z powodu szczepien, bedzie umieral Narod Polski.Oczywiscie beda nam wciskac ze umieraja z powodu choroby, podobnie jak wciskaja ciemnote ,ze jak czlowiek umiera po chemioterapii to powodem smierci byl rak a nie chemioterapia.I teraz wyobrazmy sobie, ze bedziemy mieli 5 milionow ludzi z NOP czy rakiem, to bedzie ogromny wzrost gospodarczy.Nie wolno dac sie oglupic.
    Bardzo ciekawa prelekcja Dr Jaskowski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2CmNgrxvhM

  2. Egzorcysta

    7 października 2017 at 14:32

    Panie Kuzmiuk a kiedy nam Pan objasni takie sprawy? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIAyMEQKm-I

  3. Bogdan

    7 października 2017 at 16:53

    A autor bez przerwy bredzi.

  4. Zofia

    7 października 2017 at 16:54

    Prognozy wzrostu w żaden sposób nie wpływają na niski poziom życia Polaków.

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    Nic dobrego z tego nie wynika.

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    Może p.dr zapozna się z informacjami zawartymi w wystąpieniem pt.zarobki i przywileje polskich posłów.

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