Z kraju

Także w II kwartale wzrost gospodarczy bliski 4%- totalna opozycja ma się czym martwić

Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS) podał wczoraj tzw. szybki szacunek dotyczący wzrostu gospodarczego za II kwartał tego roku, wyniósł on 3,9% w ujęciu r/r i był on zaledwie o 0,1 punktu procentowego niższy niż w I kwartale (za I kwartał tego roku w ujęciu r/r wzrost gospodarczy wyniósł 4%).

Wprawdzie pełne dane dotyczące wzrostu gospodarczego za II kwartał, GUS poda do końca sierpnia, ale już teraz można powiedzieć, że pozytywny wpływ na PKB miały wszystkie trzy czynniki w ujęciu popytowym: konsumpcja, inwestycje i eksport netto.

Tradycyjnie już ciągnął wzrost PKB „silnik” konsumpcji głównie prywatnej, ale także publicznej i dołączył do niego także „silnik” inwestycji, które w poprzednim roku wyraźnie spowolniły.

Rzeczywiście inwestycje ruszyły i to zarówno te publiczne rządowe i samorządowe w związku z przyspieszeniem wydatkowania środków z budżetu unijnego, ale także inwestycje przedsiębiorców prywatnych, co oznacza, że „silnik” inwestycyjny będzie napędzał wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce przez cały rok 2017.

Po pierwszym półroczu, wszystko wskazuje na to, że wzrost gospodarczy w tym roku będzie wyraźnie wyższy niż ten przyjęty w założeniach budżetowych w wysokości 3,6% i sięgnie 4% PKB.

Jeszcze bardziej optymistyczne dane dotyczące polskiej gospodarki podał Eurostat, który opublikował ostatnio dane dotyczące wzrostu PKB w II kwartale tego roku w porównaniu do analogicznego kwartału roku ubiegłego dotyczące wszystkich państw członkowskich, z którego wynika, że Polska jest jednym z liderów tego wzrostu.

Według tych danych wzrost PKB w Polsce w II kwartale 2017 roku wyniósł aż 4,4% (to wzrost wyrównany sezonowo, czyli z taką samą ilością dni roboczych jak w II kwartale 206 roku) i wyprzedziły nas pod tym względem tylko 3 unijne kraje: Rumunia ze wzrostem wynoszącym 5,7%, Łotwa ze wzrostem 4,8 % i Czechy 4,5%.

Na tle Polski bardzo „blado” wygląda wzrost gospodarczy w dużych krajach strefy euro, we Francji to to zaledwie 1,8%, we Włoszech 1,5%, czy Niemczech 2,1%, a cała strefa euro to tylko 2,2%.

Dobre wyniki gospodarcze za I półrocze potwierdza bardzo dobra sytuacja w budżecie państwa.

Po upływie I półrocza tego roku zrealizowano 176,7 mld zł tj. 54,4 % planowanych dochodów, 170,8 mld zł tj. 44,4% planowanych wydatków, co oznacza nadwyżkę budżetową w wysokości 5,9 mld zł, zamiast planowanego na cały rok deficytu (został zaplanowany w wysokości 59,3 mld zł).

Według dostępnych danych jest to pierwsza od 1992 roku (a więc od 25 lat) nadwyżka budżetowa w Polsce po 6 miesiącach realizacji budżetu.

Według szacunkowych danych za okres styczeń – czerwiec, dochody budżetu państwa były wyższe aż o 25,1 mld zł w porównaniu z tym samym okresem roku ubiegłego, przy czym dochody podatkowe wzrosły aż 17,7 % r/r.

Na szczególne podkreślenie zasługuje fakt, że w okresie styczeń – czerwiec odnotowano wzrost dochodów we wszystkich rodzajach podatków w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego (na szczególną uwagę zasługuje wzrost dochodów z VAT-u o ponad 28% i CIT o blisko 14%).

I tak dochody z podatku VAT były wyższe aż o 28,1% tj. o 17,6 mld zł, dochody z podatku akcyzowego i podatku od gier były wyższe, o 3,7 % czyli o ok. 1,2 mld zł, z podatku PIT były wyższe o 7,9 % tj. o około 1,7 mld zł, wreszcie z podatku CIT o 13,7 % tj. o około 1,9 mld zł.

Z kolei dochody z podatku od instytucji finansowych, (czyli tzw. podatku bankowego) wyniosły w okresie styczeń-czerwiec 2,2 mld zł, co oznacza, że jeżeli utrzymana zostanie ta dynamika całoroczne dochody powinny przekroczyć 4 mld zł i będą wyraźnie wyższe od tych zaplanowanych w budżecie z tego tytułu (3,9 mld zł).

A więc dochody z 4 podstawowych podatków (VAT, akcyza, PIT i CIT), były wyższe aż o 22,4 mld zł za 6 miesięcy tego roku w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego, a razem z tzw. podatkiem bankowym, (który w poprzednim roku jeszcze nie obowiązywał w okresie styczeń-luty), aż o 24,6 mld zł o tych z roku poprzedniego.

Dodatkowym dochodem budżetu była wpłata 95% zysku wypracowanego przez NBP w roku 2016, środki z tego tytułu w wysokości 8,7 mld zł wpłynęły do budżetu państwa właśnie w czerwcu.

Zarówno wyniki gospodarcze jak i sytuacja budżetu państwa po I półroczu, są na tyle dobre, że totalna opozycja ma się naprawdę czym martwić.

Fot. sxc.hu

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267 komentarzy

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    Doktorze (?) Kuźmiuk! To dlaczego na portalu finansowym piszą, że: wzrosła inflacja, więc od przyszłego roku będziemy płacić wyższe podatki od nieruchomości; Prezes GUS podał, że średnie wynagrodzenie za kwartał zmalało, więc pracownicy młodociani od września br. będą mieć zmniejszone minimalne wynagrodzenie, a więc ZAROBIĄ MNIEJ? Wytłumacz to „doktorku”. I jeszcze jedno, zadłużenie nam nie wzrosło? Ciekawe!

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