Felieton

Czy w tym roku czeka nas 5% wzrost PKB?

 

Tak się składa, że w tych dniach agencja ratingowa Moody’s zaprezentowała dane makroekonomiczne wg. których PKB w Polsce w 2017 roku wzrośnie z przewidywanych 3,2% aż do 4,3%, co oznacza, że przez wiele miesięcy tzw. autonomiczne czynniki wzrostu w polskiej gospodarce były zwyczajnie niedoceniane.

Co więcej w ostatnich dniach ukazały się informacje pochodzące z NBP, które sugerują, że w związku z uruchomieniem silnika inwestycyjnego w polskiej gospodarce, możliwy jest w 2017 roku nawet 5% wzrost PKB.

2. Przypomnijmy, że wprawdzie pełne dane dotyczące wzrostu gospodarczego za II kwartał, tego roku, GUS poda do połowy września, ale już teraz można powiedzieć, że pozytywny wpływ na PKB miały wszystkie trzy czynniki w ujęciu popytowym: konsumpcja, inwestycje i eksport netto.

Tradycyjnie już ciągnął wzrost PKB „silnik” konsumpcji głównie prywatnej, ale także publicznej i dołączył do niego także „silnik” inwestycji, które w poprzednim roku wyraźnie spowolniły.

Rzeczywiście inwestycje ruszyły i to zarówno te publiczne rządowe i samorządowe w związku z przyspieszeniem wydatkowania środków z budżetu unijnego, ale także inwestycje przedsiębiorców prywatnych, co oznacza, że „silnik” inwestycyjny będzie napędzał wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce przez cały rok 2017.

Po pierwszym półroczu, wszystko wskazuje na to, że wzrost gospodarczy w tym roku będzie wyraźnie wyższy niż ten przyjęty w założeniach budżetowych w wysokości 3,6% i sięgnie być może nawet 5% PKB.

3. Bardzo optymistyczne dane dotyczące polskiej gospodarki podał Eurostat, który opublikował ostatnio dane dotyczące wzrostu PKB w II kwartale tego roku w porównaniu do analogicznego kwartału roku ubiegłego dotyczące wszystkich państw członkowskich, z którego wynika, że Polska jest jednym z liderów tego wzrostu.

Według tych danych wzrost PKB w Polsce w II kwartale 2017 roku wyniósł aż 4,4% (to wzrost wyrównany sezonowo, czyli z taką samą ilością dni roboczych jak w II kwartale 206 roku) i wyprzedziły nas pod tym względem tylko 3 unijne kraje: Rumunia ze wzrostem wynoszącym 5,7%, Łotwa ze wzrostem 4,8 % i Czechy 4,5%.

Na tle Polski bardzo „blado” wygląda wzrost gospodarczy w dużych krajach strefy euro, we Francji to to zaledwie 1,8%, we Włoszech 1,5%, czy Niemczech 2,1%, a cała strefa euro to tylko 2,2%.

4. Dobre wyniki gospodarcze za I półrocze potwierdza bardzo dobra sytuacja w budżecie państwa.

Po upływie I półrocza tego roku zrealizowano 176,7 mld zł tj. 54,4 % planowanych dochodów, 170,8 mld zł tj. 44,4% planowanych wydatków, co oznacza nadwyżkę budżetową w wysokości 5,9 mld zł, zamiast planowanego na cały rok deficytu (został zaplanowany w wysokości 59,3 mld zł).

Według dostępnych danych jest to pierwsza od 1992 roku (a więc od 25 lat) nadwyżka budżetowa w Polsce po 6 miesiącach realizacji budżetu.

Według szacunkowych danych za okres styczeń – lipiec, dochody budżetu państwa były wyższe aż o 25,1 mld zł w porównaniu z tym samym okresem roku ubiegłego, przy czym dochody podatkowe wzrosły aż 17,7 % r/r.

Na szczególne podkreślenie zasługuje fakt, że w okresie styczeń – lipiec odnotowano wzrost dochodów we wszystkich rodzajach podatków w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego (na szczególną uwagę zasługuje wzrost dochodów z VAT-u o ponad 28% i CIT o blisko 14%).

5. I tak dochody z podatku VAT były wyższe aż o 28,1% tj. o 17,6 mld zł, dochody z podatku akcyzowego i podatku od gier były wyższe, o 3,7 % czyli o ok. 1,2 mld zł, z podatku PIT były wyższe o 7,9 % tj. o około 1,7 mld zł, wreszcie z podatku CIT o 13,7 % tj. o około 1,9 mld zł.

Z kolei dochody z podatku od instytucji finansowych, (czyli tzw. podatku bankowego) wyniosły w okresie styczeń-czerwiec 2,2 mld zł, co oznacza, że jeżeli utrzymana zostanie ta dynamika całoroczne dochody powinny przekroczyć 4 mld zł i będą wyraźnie wyższe od tych zaplanowanych w budżecie z tego tytułu (3,9 mld zł).

A więc dochody z 4 podstawowych podatków (VAT, akcyza, PIT i CIT), były wyższe aż o 22,4 mld zł za 7 miesięcy tego roku w stosunku do analogicznego okresu roku ubiegłego, a razem z tzw. podatkiem bankowym, (który w poprzednim roku jeszcze nie obowiązywał w okresie styczeń-luty), aż o 24,6 mld zł o tych z roku poprzedniego.

Dodatkowym dochodem budżetu była wpłata 95% zysku wypracowanego przez NBP w roku 2016, środki z tego tytułu w wysokości 8,7 mld zł wpłynęły do budżetu państwa właśnie w czerwcu.

Zarówno wyniki gospodarcze jak i sytuacja budżetu państwa po I półroczu, są na tyle dobre, że totalna opozycja ma się naprawdę czym martwić.

Zbigniew Kuźmiuk

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139 komentarzy

139 Komentarzy

  1. Józef

    13 września 2017 at 09:52

    Panie Pośle, ten dobry, a raczej b.dobry wskaźnik 5%, i nie tylko ten, jest sukcesem Polaków którzy „szaleją” z różańcem w ręku.
    Bez Pana Boga ani do proga.
    Z totalną opozycją wygracie, ale złego bez pomocy Pana Boga nie pokonacie! Czas to przyznać.
    Widzicie też, tj. obóz rządzący, że zło zbliża się coraz bardziej do granic Polski w tych ciężkich, rzecz można apokaliptycznych czasach, więc należy pytać, co z Intronizacją Jezusa Chrystusa na Króla Polski!
    Kiedy wysiądziecie z tego pędzącego „pociągu” aby zebrać w skupieniu myśli, i zabezpieczycie Polskę przed złym, do czego otrzymaliście Boży mandat, bowiem tego domagają się wyborcy, Polacy.
    Proroctwa są jednoznaczne, czas je skrupulatnie wypełnić.
    Z Panem Bogiem

  2. hansi

    13 września 2017 at 10:33

    Hmm !… Szczęść, Boże 🙂 …
    Panie doktorze.
    Ja nawet nie czytam tych liczb i procentów 🙂
    Bo i PO CO ? 🙂
    „Wzrost PKB” odbywa się (pomimo trwającego rozdawnictwa, oraz dalszej LIKWIDACJI średniej i drobnej przedsiębiorczości) kosztem tych VAT-owców, których, po nazwaniu ich złodziejami, że „okradają Skarb Państwa”, zrabowano na ileś tam set miliardów „należnego”, bandziorskiego podatku VAT, jednocześnie NIE RUSZAJĄC w tym temacie bandziorni niemieckiej i francuskiej (oraz UKRAIŃSKIEJ, o której nigdzie ani słowa, nap. o STOCZNI GDAŃSKIEJ..), w dalszym ciągu nie płacącej NIC i po staremu WYPROWADZAJĄCEJ z Polski monstrualne kwoty…
    Banda PiS obiecuje sobie następny „wzrost PKB”, na skutek zapowiedzianego rabunku przedsiębiorców i BIEDNYCH ludzi (nawet studentów i rencistów), o którym mowa nawet w dzisiejszych „wiadomościach” 🙂
    NIE WIEM, czy to się tym razem uda (gdy tą metodą ZLIKWIDUJE się Polakom zarobku dorywczego, czy sezonowego…, bo odtąd już nikt im nie da pracy) I czy to wystarczy na to buńczuczne „5%”..
    Gdy na czarno odziane bandziory z „Policji Fiskalnej” i inne Straże Wiejskie, będą napadały i rabowały drobnych handlarzy, jak ostatnio – drobnych wytwórców WIN i nalewek, gdzieś tam w Białymstoku, czy gdzieś, a czemu poświęcił felieton nawet Grzegorz Braun 🙂
    Rządowi lada moment skończy się kasa..
    A CO może jeszcze „sprywatyzować”, żeby wystarczyło też i na 65 miliardów wymuszenia rozbójniczego ze strony „holocaust-industry”, popieranego przez Szewacha Weissa, któremu Duduś nawet ostatnio wręczył ORDER polski, bezczeszcząc tym samym tenże Order ? 🙂 ..
    LASY PAŃSTWOWE ? 🙂
    Bo Polacy zadłużeni są, „dzięki” takiej socjalistyczno-faszystowskiej „polityce” szabesgojów w „polskim (nie)rządzie, już chyba do siódmego pokolenia naprzód ?..
    O DLATEGO brodata, dobrze odżywiona żydownia w wczarnych kapeluszach z Chabad-Lubavicz, fotografująca się razem z Preziem, czuje się w POlsce już całkiem, jak u siebie ?
    Panie Kuźmiuk ?..
    A Pan tu dyrdymały o „wzrostach PKB” 🙂 ..
    Oraz czy aby na pewno – zapewni elektorat PiS-owi i Preziowi, bo dzban wodę nosi tylko do czasu, Panie doktorze 🙂 ..

    • hansi

      13 września 2017 at 10:36

      Może to NIEMCY mają zapłacić „reparacje”, co przypomina sytuację, gdy w najdroższej restauracji zamawiamy najdroższe małże, danie za daniem, w przekonaniu, że w którymś małżu, już-już lada-moment, ukaże się dorodna PERŁA, która pozwoli za cały ten obstalunek ZAPŁACIĆ ? 🙂 …
      Shalom ! 🙂

  3. darek

    13 września 2017 at 10:48

    wygląda na to że coraz mniej ludzi kupuje propagande sukcesu bo przecież „jak jest każdy widzi”, kilkunasto i kilkudziesieciotysieczne pensje wybranych i miliony pracujące za tanie jedzenie i dojazd do pracy albo za granicą

  4. Paweł

    13 września 2017 at 11:03

    Kuźmiuk w typowy dla siebie chamski sposób ignoruje pytania czytelników. Powiedz mi Kuźmiuk dlaczego będziemy płacić emerytury i renty ukraińcom? Dlaczego płacimy je żydostwu? Te swoje procenciki niepoparte żadnymi realnymi danymi możesz sobie rozbić o ten głupi łeb.

  5. Marian

    13 września 2017 at 17:44

    Co zrobić, aby Polska była krajem ludzi zamożnych. – To proste. Wystarczy nie kraść.

  6. Janusz

    13 września 2017 at 18:40

    Dlaczego tylko 5% p. Kuźmiuku? Zaszalej, powiedz że 10%, albo 40% jak gorzała, której pewnie nadużywasz. Tylko czytelnikom powiedz jak na spowiedzi, jaki będzie PNB w Polsce? Nie PKB, do którego są wliczane operacje zagranicznych oszustów grabiących nasz kraj, a PNB, Produkt Narodowy Brutto? No co Kuźmiuku, wymiękła ci rura (jeśli kiedykolwiek nie była miękka)? Pewnie z 500% minus…

  7. Kevin

    20 września 2017 at 01:25

    Wow, provide out journalistic trustworthiness for the sake of marketing revenues and absolutely free cocktails, a lot

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