Polskość

Wzrost PKB w roku 2016 bliski 3%

Nie sprawdzają się na szczęście „katastroficzne” prognozy ekspertów związanych z poprzednim obozem władzy, którzy wręcz na wyścigi przewidywali, że wzrost PKB w Polsce będzie wyraźnie niższy od przewidywanego w budżecie na rok 2016 wynoszącego 3,2%.

Niektórzy z nich prognozowali, że będzie on niewiele wyższy niż 2% i wręcz oskarżali nowy rząd premier Beaty Szydło, że doprowadził do załamania inwestycji publicznych, przemilczając jednocześnie, że to marszałkowie 15 województw z koalicji PO-PSL(tylko jeden w województwie podkarpackim jest z Prawa i Sprawiedliwości), odpowiadają za bardzo niski poziom wydatkowania środków na inwestycje w województwach, powiatach i gminach, finansowanych z większościowym udziałem środków z budżetu UE.

Jednak według stanowiska resortu rozwoju zaprezentowanego ostatnio na konferencji organizowanej przez Narodowy Bank Polski i Bank Światowy wzrost PKB w Polsce w roku 2016 był bliski 3%.

Prezentująca te dane zastępca dyrektora departamentu strategii rozwoju z tego ministerstwa Aneta Piątkowska, stwierdziła, że motorem wzrostu był popyt krajowy wspierany dobrą sytuacją na rynku pracy (najniższa stopa bezrobocia w ciągu ostatnich 25 lat wynosząca na koniec grudnia 2016 tylko 8,3%) i pozytywnymi nastrojami konsumentów spowodowanymi głównie realizacją programu Rodzina 500plus.

Optymizm dotyczący wzrostu gospodarczego potwierdzają także dane pochodzące z resortu finansów dotyczące wpływów podatkowych.

Ministerstwo finansów nie opublikowało jeszcze danych za grudzień, ale już po 11 miesiącach 2016 roku można stwierdzić, że w okresie styczeń-listopad dochody budżetowe zostały wykonane w 93,8 % tych planowanych.

Utrzymuje się wyraźnie tendencja wyższych niż w analogicznym okresie roku ubiegłego wpływów podatkowych (o ponad 7,4%), tylko wpływy z tzw. podatku bankowego wyraźnie odbiegają od tego, co zaplanowano w budżecie (3,1 mld zł wpływów po 11 miesiącach przy zaplanowanych 5,5 mld zł).

Dochody z podatku VAT były wyższe o 7,4% w ujęciu r/r tj. o 8,4 mld zł, dochody z podatku akcyzowego i podatku od gier były wyższe o 5% r/r tj. o ok.2,9 mld zł, z PIT były wyższe o 7,1% r/r tj. o 2,9 mld zł, z podatku CIT były wyższe o 2% r/r tj. o 0,5 mld zł, co razem z wpływami podatku bankowego (3,1 mld zł).

Sumarycznie w roku 2016 za 11 miesięcy dochody z 4 głównych podatków były aż o 18 mld zł wyższe niż w analogicznym okresie roku 2015.

A należy przypomnieć, że w ostatnich latach rządów Platformy mimo wzrostu gospodarczego wpływy z podatków z roku na rok malały (na przykład z podatku VAT) mimo tego, że w każdym roku odnotowywaliśmy wzrost gospodarczy.

Jeżeli ostatecznie te dane zostaną potwierdzone, to bardzo prawdopodobne jest, że w roku 2017 wzrost gospodarczy może wynieść 3,6% PKB, czyli tyle ile przyjęto w założeniach budżetowych, co oznacza także optymizm w realizacji dochodów budżetowych.

Budżet na 2017 rok jest, bowiem ambitny po stronie dochodów, zaplanowano wyraźne zwiększenie dochodów z 4 podstawowych podatków VAT, akcyza, PIT, CIT (poprawa wydajności podatkowej) i to bardzo wyraźna, bo w przypadku VAT aż o 11% do kwoty 143,5 mld zł, akcyzy do kwoty 69 mld zł, z PIT o 3 mld zł (o 5%) do kwoty 51 mld zł i z CIT o 3 mld zł (o14%) do kwoty 30 mld zł.

Sumarycznie wydajność podatkowa w ciągu dwóch pierwszych lat rządów Prawa i Sprawiedliwości ma wzrosnąć do 15,4% PKB i będzie to wzrost aż o 2 punkty procentowe w stosunku do tego, co odziedziczyliśmy po rządach PO-PSL (na koniec roku 2015 wydajność ta wynosiła zaledwie 13,5% PKB).

 

Jeżeli podobają Ci się materiały publicystów portalu Prawy.pl wesprzyj budowę Europejskiego Centrum Pomocy Rodzinie im. św. Jana Pawła II poprzez dokonanie wpłaty na konto Fundacji SOS Obrony Poczętego Życia: 32 1140 1010 0000 4777 8600 1001. Pomóż leczyć ciężko chore dzieci.

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